Financial Cosmonaut

The market doesn’t need specific and confirmed moves to bounce. It only needs a glimmer of what is possible. Yesterday’s rally was based only on the hope of a stimulus package being passed by Congress. It wasn’t actually done. Yet the largest rally in decades occurred , an almost 11% jump. This is ominous as it could easily reverse and crush the market even worse than before. I learned a valuable insight on Bear markets: Bear markets don’t end with optimism , they end in despair! I believe that the market will turn down once again yet it might be a slow steady grind instead of the leaps we have been seeing.

Of loss or of missing out ? Whichever is greater will drive the direction of the market. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/the-vix-fear-gauge-is-soaring-its-unlikely-to-come-down-anytime-soon-51584050364

In a time of the gold rush , sell shovels.

Under 50 for first time since 2017 has hit the market hard today. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337

Half the approach on the market is that there is no losing for it’s only a rest before the next win. — 🌹Sean ⚾️📈 (@SeanPChambers) January 23, 2020

Bulls: Trendline Support - looks like it’s low but consistent Wedge Down -  Sharp angle converging downward Triangle Ascending - Flat top, rising bottom Batman - 1 small top sandwiched by 2 super tops Channel Up - parallel lines going up, be careful though Flag - quick up then tight side to side Bears: Trendline Resistance - looks like it’s high but consistent Wedge Up - Sharp angle converging upward Triangle Descending - Flat bottom, lowering top Head and Shoulders - 1 super top sandwiched by 2 tops Channel Down - parallel lines going down, watch out  Reverse flag - quick down then tight side to side

Brent Crude futures are the global benchmark for oil.

Looks like another doubtful day has begun with the ever elusive “deal” with China seeming like less of a reality with every day that passes.  Decided to make a tough decision and consolidate most assets into Walmart as DLTR was bleeding bad and Target suffered from an analyst report yesterday that speculates they are losing market share to Amazon.  On the good news front, Walmart reports earning tomorrow before opening bell. So the moves today are as follows.. TGT. -1000 @ 107.18 DLTR. -800 @ 106.75 WMT +900 @ 119.45, total is now 2200 @ 119.56 BABA + 275 @ 184.86

The only major thing I saw today was the impressive rise of Planet Fitness.  They rode their positive earnings report up the escalator to gain about 4% on the day and climbing! I decided to bail out of UBER as it had a scary rise yesterday..and took even money to close the position, as usual I am probably wrong for pulling the plug too soon- but I have my hands full with the continued downward trend of my bargain retail positions. BUY TO COVER: UBER 1000 @ 26.96 =  26,960 - UBER 1000 @ 26.97 = 26,970 Gain= $10

This week analysts are hoping for a healthy steadying of the ups and downs as of late. Friday’s down curve was predictable after the market reached record heights.  The news from the China / US trades was not as good as expected and for now has put the market on a downward trail.  Oil prices have fallen slightly .   I expect the moderate loss cycle will continue today and possibly into tomorrow forcing us into a hold pattern. The time for bravery is upon us on Veterans Day! Added short position -1000 UBER @ 26.97 Reasoning , the shares have already fell significantly yet the numbers seem to indicate that UBER Is completely unsustainable at the rate they are burning through their cash reserves. It’s only a matter of time before these shares suffer yet another collapse as investor confidence further erodes and competition stiffens from LYFT.

Most major issues are headed south in an early look today. The good news is that the 3/3 of the value retailers we picked up Yesterday are in the green. Today we practice something we rarely do, the HOLD. Might look at value in Costco if it falls or a safe haven like SPY. Disney shot up in over night trading . It looks like investors are believers in the upcoming Disney+ network

That should be a continuous quest. We saw how the YUAN affects chinese stocks earlier in the year and lately we've been looking at spikes from earnings. Today I found an earnings website that should be part of the routine news absorption ritual pre-market. https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar Important one coming up next week: Walmart and possibly Disney. Movement news: Took a big hit on this one: BUY TO COVER LYFT 2000 @ 43 = 86,000 LYFT 2000 @ 40.93 = 81,860 LOSS = $ -4,140 * Lesson learned- in a duopoly- the other part of the duopoly gets stronger when its competitor weakens. Here we saw UBER suffer massive loss and investors picked up Lyft at bargain prices. I got out of that position to take advantage of what is looking to be a GREEN day and took more conservative/long positions in retail which I will try to ride at least until early December: Moving on to retail, the best analysts seem to believe spending will be up-and so will spending...

It frequently happens after a big day like yesterday...a kind of correction back to the average.  That being said, my focus today was on short sales. From yesterday we locked in Macy's big gain and today acted on it! shortsale M 5000 @ 16.60 = $ 83.000 M 5000 @ 16.20 = $ 81,000 Gain= $ 2,000 Furthermore- I've opened a short position in LYFT that is losing right now but the numbers indicate it will eventually turn out to be correct being that analysis shows 1year, 6 month and 3 month charts of this company projecting downward.  It's relative in the industry, UBER, was pounded yesterday with a near 10% loss, it is following up today with another 3.5 % decline as of this writing and is expected to fall further as it exits from IPO protection later in the day and investors will be able to drop shares.  It is my projection that the fall in UBER will once again drag LYFT down with it. *lesson* I probably pulled the trigger too soon on this one and could have set my ...

As expected, UBER takes a humongous fall as they fail to meet earnings.  Unfortunately, we were locked in a position with COSTCO and could not capitalize on time. * Will be monitoring UBER and LYFT as a result of this earnings loss. *LESSON* Move out of positions faster to open up opportunities. Other Moves Today: Bought 100 XNET @ 5.943= 594 Sold 100 XNET @ 6.5353 = 653 GAIN = $59 Bought COST 300 @ 296.36 = 88,908 BOUGHT COST 400 @  295.97 =  118,388                                               sum = 207,296 SOLD 700 COST @ 298.00  = 208,600 GAIN = 208,600- 207,296 =  $1,304 In Macy's news the analysts are pushing the stock as a value stock and investors are flocking to pick it up.  This has pushed Macy's up 5 Percent today, I feel it's not in line with current trends and it will fall back into place. Therefore: S...

Record highs have been reached on the strength of better than expected earnings across the market. I am however cautious and am looking at where to place bear positions when this uptick finally ends. I am considering to short UBER and I still look at Macy’s for potential reward from their inflated price points. 3 moves this morning. Sold all STI, locking in a modest gain. Sold 289 @ 70.45= 20360 - 289 @  69.45=  20,071 Gain $ 289 Added position to COST Waiting for Costco to get a charge although it was flat this morning while other observed assets jumped. 300 @ 296.36 New totals and average = 700 shares at 296.14 Bought very tiny position in XNET 100 @ 5.94

I’ve have consistently seen gains of 2-3 % of those corporations reporting beating their earnings , especially those that report early.  Where to get these reports as soon as they come out is going to be a question I need to answer.  Today I saw a pre-market report of BABA beating their earnings and snatched up all I could at a relatively high entry point. I’m certain others saw the report minutes before I did which costed me a small gain.  I also set a modest exit point that was met before I got the chance to react!  I’m content with the gain but always saddened that the gains could have been higher. This is the perpetual cycle of self torture that the investor must endure. Pre market BUY BABA 350 @ 178.5 = 62,475 SELL BABA 350 @ 181.05 = 63,368 Gain= $893

The continuous turmoil in US/ China relations has made this day very red .  The political news with Trumps ongoing looming impeachment troubles might also have thrown a wrench into the day.  Of my observed market activity only Hershey, Apple and Facebook have eluded the grip of the Bearish mood on the market.  Facebook particularly has an extremely good outlook among key analysts despite their own looking legal antitrust issues. I will be looking for a reversal in trend in the 2 Chinese commerce stocks that I prefer BABA and JD in the after market. As a precaution today, I closed down the position in SBUX in the black. SALE: SBUX 800 x 85.05 = $68,040 SBUX 800 x 84.61= $67,688 Gain = $352 We are maintaining the position in Costco due to today being the ex-dividend date which will lock in tomorrow with a dividend per share at about 41 cents .

Apples stock movement is being used by investors as a barometer for tarriff and trade negotiations. So far this year the movement has been up and up since June.   With more movement up expected to coincide with the start of Apple TV. Apple will also report earnings later today. Investors seem to have mixed feelings on whether or not they will post a positive earnings report.  With indicators, that investors expecting a gain or loss split at around 50/50. SALE! (Buy to cover) As a precaution to today’s news , I have locked in yesterday’s gains. AAPL 400 x 243.90 = 97,560 AAPL 400*246.13= -98,452 Gain= $892 Pre-market ADDITIONS COST (Costco) 400 x 295.97= $118,388 SBUX (Starbucks) 800 x 84.61= $67,688 STI (Suntrust) 289 x 69.45= $20.071

Scouting shows that earnings at Apple might drop the most since 2001.  There’s a lot of volume with downward motion today... and it is my opinion that it will continue its decline. Short Position added: AAPL 400*246.13= -98,452 Mistake closed : XNET bought 1000 @ 5.86 = $5,860 XNET SOLD 1000 @ 4.85 = $4,850 Loss = $ 1,010 *lesson * don’t buy at the top, this was a possible pump and dump..at least we got out quick.

The blockchain technology is definitely the future of financial transactions in the future. The hardware requirements to make the calculations that make blockchain possible are extremely high. Therefore it might be wise to look at those companies that provide services in the cloud That to some degree lessen the extreme hardware requirements inherent in blockchain. The President of China heralded one such company that might make this type of thing possible,  Xunlei. On Friday when the company was mentioned , it’s shares jumped 100 percent.  I expect further growth and it’s a great time to roll the dice with blockchain, with this company that is working on algorithms that speed up the process of cloud based computing. Sale!!! BABA acquired at 600x170 = 102,000                                400x177.4= 70,960                         ...